Perception is 9/10 of the law....

I rediscovered a book which I first read in graduate school about the use of numbers in public policy debates called Damn Lies and Statistics by Josh Best, a University of Delaware Sociologist.   Best's book argues that statistics are essential to discuss things we want to solve in the public arena AND that because so many people accept, often without question, numbers offered by public figures, newspeople and social media gurus - we live with a lot of bunk.

Let me offer one example that he offers at the start of the volume.  Some unnamed PhD candidate who had the good fortune to have Best on his guidance committee. The candidate made the absurd argument that the number of child murders had doubled every year since 1950.  Think for a moment about the power of numbers.   1 becomes 2 becomes 4 becomes 8 and so on. (at 10 days the number is 512, per day)  In a very short period the number of annual childhood murders would be will beyond the number of children and perhaps very soon larger than the world population.   The student's gaffe was not caught until a scholarly journal had published part of his research.

The problem we face with numbers is that some people are either careless or malevolent with numbers.  All of us who have practiced in the public arena have been guilty of a bit of balderdash with numbers.  In the early 1970s I worked for a Michigan congressman who was a moderate environmentalist.   (That was when such things were possible.).  He had a constituent from Ann Arbor who had a summer home in Minnesota near Silver Bay on Lake Superior.   A company called Reserve Mining extracted low grade iron ore by crushing the ore into a slurry and then extracting out the iron.  The company offered jobs to people in the area but the remaining gunk, without the ore, was held in some holding ponds and then simply washing into the lake.   The pictures of the spillway were dramatic.

We were sitting around one night and wondered how much effluent was being dumped into the lake.  I was tasked to figure that out.  We knew the depth of the sluice and its width and the approximate speed of the water.   We made some assumptions about the carrying capacity of the water and Voila a statistic was created.  The other Voila was how quickly people of authority began to quote the number.  The basis had no real justification except a (poorly) educated guess.  Eventually Reserve Mining was closed down, in part because of that bogus number.   Lake Superior is exquisite and had Reserve gone on for (a very long time) while it would have become less beautiful.

Made up statistics are frequent.  For example, Mitch Snyder once claimed that the number of homeless in the US exceeded 3 million people - the Reagan Administration did the numbers and suggested that it was closer to 300,000 and Snyder immediately claimed that the number was reduced because the Administration wanted to deny the problem.   For me that was one of the first examples of "fact" shaming.   Similar outlandish numbers came up in all sorts of other policy debates - at one point the estimated number of deaths from anorexia in young women was claimed to be 150,000 annually - that number is highly dubious but the advocates were trying to push a point.

The good point about rediscovering this book is the clear way that Professor Best describes the terrors of statistics.  He has several "hazards" for stats - they can, like my effluent stat (yes indeed it was effluent!) be made up.   Others may consider apples and oranges.   And still others can be intentional distortions.   The book was written before there was much cable news and before social media were here - but he points out that even when the book was written many reporters are simply too lazy to chase down wild claims and many may be too innumerate to understand the implications of what they bandy about.   The problem is that many people listen to the "experts" babble on about some number and believe it may have some basis in fact - and indeed, sometimes it does.   But often a number is just a close cousin to luncheon meat.

We've heard all sorts of numbers behind the Administration's Build Better America plan which has a cost of several trillion dollars ($1,000,000,000,000 - a trillion is 12 zeros!) and even those estimates are bogus because of the bizarre way costs are estimated. Don't believe the number used in the House debate - it has so many tricks and dodges it might even be called slight of hand.  I was amused a few days ago when Senator Sanders grumped that journalists have not done a good enough job selling this boondoggle.   Perhaps another explanation is that a good number of us are skeptical of a massive expansion of both the deficit and mucking around even more deeply in our lives.  Last time I checked the Press is not supposed to be a mouth piece for any administration - but Sanders thought because he was for it, the forces of political correctness must defend the point - no matter how bogus.

SO what about the picture?  One fraternity brother was driving through a small town in Mono county and saw the Chevron prices for gas. (IN the Eastern side of the state - think REMOTE).  Another fraternity brother commented "Incredible gouge. Way over prices here in Oakland."   My immediate response was to question whether the huge increases in Federal debt and the Biden Administration's attacks on all forms of fossil fuels might have created this pricing spike.

But as you think about both of our reactions - they involved a lot of jerky knees.   Here are some other things one should think about.   First, Mono county is remote - their gas prices are always way higher than in other parts of the state which are closer to refineries.   Second, as we have come out of COVID lockdowns more people are driving thus putting more demand pressure on gas prices. California especially has artificially curtailed supply.  Third, the Year to Year increases between urban Oakland and rural Mono County are not the same - Oakland's gas prices have jumped 60+% over the last year while Mono's have grown only about 11%.

Understanding how things interact is tough.  This gas thing made me think a bit about being  more cautious in responding to images or posts.   Not a bad lesson.

UPDATE ON Of Course It's True, Except for a Couple of Lies - The book is now tripartite; the first on Family; the second on Life; and the third on Beliefs.  They will be published simultaneously - and will be roughly the same size.   The first "Stave" has been done in final edit and the next two are progressing.   Based on the amount of work left to do it will probably be available in Q1 2022.